ANALISIS PREDIKSI KEBANGKRUTAN DENGAN MODEL ALTMAN Z-SCORE PADA PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk (TOBA) PERIODE 2022 - 2024

Abstract

This study aims to analyze and predict the potential for bankruptcy of PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk (TOBA) during the period 2022-2024 using the Altman Z-Score Model. This analysis method utilizes five key financial ratios (X1, X2, X3, X4, and X5) to generate a single score that indicates the company's financial health. The financial data used in this study is sourced from the annual financial reports of PT TOBA.

The results show that PT TOBA was not in the bankruptcy zone throughout the observed period. In 2022, the company had a high Z-Score of 7.535, placing it in the "safe zone." However, its financial performance weakened in 2023, causing the Z-Score to drop significantly to 3.571. This decline was triggered by a decrease in operational profitability and asset efficiency, as reflected in the weaker X2 and X3 ratios. Nevertheless, the company made a strong recovery in 2024, with the Z-Score jumping back to 7.769. This surge was primarily driven by the recovery of investor sentiment and a sharp increase in stock price, as indicated by the X4 ratio.

In conclusion, the fluctuations in PT TOBA's Z-Score demonstrate the company's ability to adapt and overcome economic pressures. Despite facing a performance downturn in 2023, the company successfully maintained its position in the safe zone. This study concludes that, based on the Altman Z-Score Model, PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk (TOBA) has a solid financial foundation and is in a stable position with a very low risk of bankruptcy.

Keywords: Altman Z-Score, Bankruptcy.